Real-Life SHTF: Haiti Earthquake

Port-au-Prince is the scene of an honest-t0-God SHTF situation right now. Here are the reports I am reading:

• Haitian PM Jean-Max Bellerive believes 100,000 may be dead. Senator Youri Latortue believes the figure may be closer to 500,000. Both admit they don't know for sure.
• Doctors Without Borders reports that all hospitals in Port-au-Prince are gone. Not damaged. Not without power. Gone.
• The main prison in Port-au-Prince has collapsed and there are reports of escaped inmates.
• The parking lot of the Hotel Villa Creole has been turned into a triage center. The International Red Cross reports that one-third of Haiti's 9 million people - 3 million persons - may require emergency aid.
• The commander of a U.S. Coast Guard cutter is reporting that the port is heavily damaged.
• The Port-au-Prince airport was unable to accept flights in the first hours after the quake because the traffic control tower was not communicating.

I confess that my mind is simply not able to comprehend such devastation. But I think that it is helpful to read these reports, view the photos, watch the news coverage, and imagine yourself there. First, because it helps you to be compassionate for what these poor people are going through - please donate to the relief effort if you can. Second, because it may help you to find areas of your own disaster planning that could use improvement.

As I write this, it's less than 24 hours after the quake, which occurred at 4:53 p.m. local time. I imagine that I am there. I would have been at work. I probably would have been trapped in rubble, and if I escaped, I most likely would have been separated from my emergency kit no matter where I had stored it - in my office (buried in rubble) or in my car (buried under tons of concrete in a pancaked garage). I would be without a cell phone to call home. I would have to try to walk five miles home (to an apartment that likely no longer exists) over rubble, concrete, and broken glass with only the three-inch-heels on my feet and the dirty, torn clothes on my back. I would sleep in the street on whatever soft material I could find, afraid to go into any of the damaged structures around me. I would not have anything to eat until Red Cross arrives, probably two days from now.

Honestly, I don't know how you can plan for this sort of disaster. When buildings are not up to code and everything collapses, there's nowhere you can go and nothing you can stash that will help you except, possibly, for whatever is in your pockets when the building comes down. As much as we all strive to be independent and prepared, sometimes all you can rely on is your faith in God and the charity of others.

SHTF Scenario: Asteroid Impact

Eric Berger discusses a recent "war-game" scenario and why the government is completely unprepared to deal with such a disaster here.

Asteroid could impact Earth in 31 years; scientists urge action

Thanks to M. D. Creekmore at the Survivalist Blog for the link to this story:

Scientists discover asteroid that could hit Earth 31 years from now; scientists urge action now to discover ways to avert catastrophe

The Long Emergency: A Plausible Scenario

Many people have some level of preparation for a short-term crisis - say, a temporary power outage. Others who live in areas with known risks like tornados, hurricanes, or earthquakes may have a higher level of preparation, but probably nothing that would sustain them for more than two weeks.

It is important to consider, then, the possibility of a Long Emergency: a critical event causing crisis conditions for periods of months to years. Here is one plausible scenario that should get your attention: a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the sun, striking the earth so quickly that there would be little to no warning. It would fry the electrical grid, plunging the world into a pre-electricity era. Estimates for a full recovery in the United States range from 4 to 10 years.

It's important not to be overwhelmed by these possibilities. While such an event would no doubt impose severe hardship on everyone, there are ways to increase your chances of survival. Everyone should think in terms of the essentials: shelter, food, water. You can purchase water filters and pumps so that, if the tap water becomes unsanitary, you can make it suitable for drinking. You can store food and learn how to grow your own food. You can purchase solar panels (for less than you might imagine) in order to give your home a limited amount of electricity -- enough to sustain refrigeration, for example, by powering your refrigerators for a few hours a day.

I think it's important to approach crisis preparedness with a problem-solving mindset, and to not be overwhelmed by all of the possibilities or by the difficulty of preparing for a life off the grid. Simply cultivating an awareness of all the ways in which we are dependent upon electricity and other vital services, and then coming up with an alternate plan for replacement of those services, will go a long way.